The Bergen County Homes Blog

What Can We Expect in 2009?

I can answer this with one word – improvement. I had projected 10% depreciation but that was before the stunning sub prime mess was revealed. While we have “Monday Morning Quarterbacks,” the truth is virtually no one knew of this growing menace. The Tenafly market for homes in 2008 ended with 25% fewer sales and 18% depreciation.

Yet Tenafly homes did better than most; our market is more resilient than you’d think. Selling a home took less time in 2008 and first quarter figures indicate we’ll do even better this year.

Appraisers are still deducting 1% per month but say this will end later in the year; Jeff Otteau, the renowned analyst of New Jersey’s housing market, announced in mid March that 2009 will end with 9% depreciation statewide. This dovetails with a second half recovery; homes in Tenafly will see it during the fourth quarter.

By recovery I do not mean that prices will go up; they won’t. They will stop going down and the market will stabilize. We’ll stay there for another year or two before any upward swing bringing us to 2012 or later.

Although unemployment will continue to increase over the next several months, it should level off by year’s end. Unfortunately unemployment will not improve quickly. For now we can only estimate how this will affect our market; its impact takes a while to be felt.

But Washington funded the FHA to continue lending and increased the tax credit to $8,000 with no payback required. This enabled first time buyers to get in the market. With the lion’s share of price depreciation done and mortgage rates so low most of us have never seen this, home buyers are back in the market. Activity has really picked up since March 1st with no signs of slowing down.

What is certain is that Tenafly real estate remains one of the most in demand markets in the NYC metropolitan area. This will not change. While we can’t escape the storms of life, the truth is that Tenafly weathers them better than most in Bergen County and the New York City area.

Just to give you an idea of how close Bergen County is to New York City, let me show you:

This is the New Jersey side on the right…..  

      And this is the New York Side on the left.

No matter which side of the Hudson River you’re viewing, the distance across the George Washington Bridge between Bergen County New Jersey and New York City is just under one mile at 4,760 feet (one mile equals 5,280 feet).  Even the northwest corner of Bergen County in Mahwah New Jersey on the Upstate New York border is only 21 miles and a 30 minute drive away.   This close proximity to Manhattan means that we’re an excellent commute to NYC which allows many Bergen County residents to work there and on weekends, many of us go to New York City to take advantage of it’s museums and cultural activities such as Broadway plays and Lincoln Center concerts.  This is also a primary reason why Bergen County homes are so valuable to buyers – where else can you get the best of suburban living 15 minutes from Manhattan?