The Bergen County Homes Blog

My projection for Bergen County real estate is right on target - our housing market is improving.  New Jersey MLS data, bank appraisers and housing reports all say the same thing:  We have clearly bottomed out and are in a period of stabilization.

Today’s ratio of homes for sale to under contract is 4 to 1; early in the year it was in double digits.  Last spring Bergen County was classified by the mortgage industry as an “area in decline” meaning that values were falling.  Appraisers were deducting 1% per month of value; if a home appraised at $200,000 and was closing 2 months later, the appraisal was fixed at  $196,000.  Bergen County’s housing market is no longer classified as “in decline” and a Valley National Bank appraiser on Monday told me that price depreciation has ended.

Jeff Otteau in his latest real estate newsletter termed the NJ real estate market’s performance “remarkable” and forecast continued improvement.  The monthly Credit Suisse agent survey said that for the first time in a long time a majority of agents reported positive home buyer traffic and houses selling quicker.

With all time low interest rates, prices no longer dropping and falling inventory levels, there should be no surprise to find stability in the Bergen County real estate market.

When people decide to buy a home they naturally start to look at the real estate market, do some number crunching and find statistics which explain the market trends. Lately, a statistic on homes that’s been quite popular is the absorption rate.

Absorption rates simply put tell you how long it will take to sell off the existing inventory of homes. This shows you how properties are selling; it’s measured in months as in how many months it will take to sell all the homes for sale. Understanding market activity is important but I think that looking at absorption rates this early in the year can be misleading.

No matter the economy, the housing market has a unique rhythm of it’s own. Most homes for sale go on the market during the early part of the year and are sold during the summer so statistics for the first few months of the year that track the relationship between sales and available inventory can be tilted in the wrong direction. In fact, absorption rates at this point can be very confusing if you look at the report appraisers use when they do an appraisal on a house. This is the 1004MC Report.

Let’s look at Tenafly, NJ. If you go back 12 months from today, the Tenafly real estate market for homes really looks weird. For example, take a look at the number of Active Listings – it looks terrible doesn’t it? Well, what would you expect for this time of year? It’s always larger now because more houses are on the market between March and June. At the same time, how long a home is on the market for sale is currently half what it was previously. That is extremely important. In truth, Tenafly houses are selling very well. Tenafly homes are always in strong demand. The New Jersey MLS 1004MC Appraisal Report for Tenafly can be found at tenafly-1004mc-report

Since the beginning of March the housing market for homes in Bergen County has really picked up and as we are now nearly through April, I thought that I would take a look at the MLS data to see if what I’ve been seeing is really happening. After all, most real estate agents are a pretty optimistic bunch so I just wanted to go into the New Jersey MLS and check.

Here’s what I found – things truly are picking up. Real estate is improving most definitely; it’s not dramatic but haven’t we had enough drama over the past 9 months? It’s steady and that’s good. Take a look at the figures below and you’ll see what I’m talking about. More buyers are coming out to look at homes and more homes are taking offers. Here are homes that came on the market for sale and which went under contract so far this year:

Jan – 1,232 Active/286 UC = 4.3 to 1 ratio
Feb -1,255 Active/335 UC = 3.8 to 1 ratio
Mar -1,693 Active/443 UC = 3.8 to 1 ratio
Apr -1,311 Active/413 UC = 3.2 to 1 ratio

The April figures are through today, April 23rd, and they certainly indicate continued improvement for Bergen County homes. What hasn’t been so clear are the Days on the Market figures but you really can’t get a sense of where that’s going until we’re further into the year because almost all sales in January and February originate from the previous year. But in March it took 110.64 days to sell a home and so far in April it’s been taking 103.59 days to sell a home which is a positive change.

The real estate market is always more active during the spring and early summer months and the pattern that is developing is quite normal which is excellent. For a home buyer, this is really a great time to buy a home and it seems that increasing numbers of people are sensing this and acting.

The figures are in and the real estate market in Bergen County is doing OK.  It’s still a buyer’s market for homes but you can see some signs of improvement.

In January I had written that the real estate market in Bergen County would shift during the 4th quarter of 2009 and stabilize.  From then on for a few years we would be working in a narrow range before turning upward again.  This time it would take longer than it did in the early 90′s to rebound fully but being stable is good.  So far my projection is still on target.

Most of the reports at that time were for this to happen once we were solidly in 2010 – well, the media reports are singing a different song because things have changed.  And so has the market.

If you look at the number of homes coming onto the market and going under contract, what you’ll find is very interesting.  For the homes becoming active in the New Jersey MLS, there’s been an 11% drop during the first quarter of 2009 but the pace of homes going under contract is the same this year as it was last year.  Do I hear the word stable anywhere?  Yes, this is indeed a sign of stabilization and that’s, to quote Martha Stewart, a good thing.

For the first quarter in both 2008 and 2009 the Active to Under Contract ratio is 3.9 to 1 in the New Jersey MLS data.  This means that the pace of home sales is maintaining itself and it’s also quite respectable – the ratio of a strong seller’s market is 2 to 1.

Looking closer to see what happened we find that in 2008 the rate at which homes became active was pretty normal – a gradual progression as you moved more into the year.  But in 2009, January and February were anemic and then we had a 32% explosion upward in March.  Do you think that the spring real esate market is back in Bergen County?  I sure do.

Home buying activity has really picked up since March 1st and home sellers have correspondingly jumped into the real estate market.  Why would they wait until now to put their home on the market for sale?  Because the atmosphere was so negative at the end of 2008 that it made many homeowners hold off.  What’s changed?  Well, just to mention a few items – the $8,000 tax credit, liberalization of FHA mortgages, even lower mortage rates, home prices not seen in nearly 8 years and the natural spring rhythm of home buying.

While home values are still going down – another 5% for the rest of this year – I still feel that the market will be stabilized by the 4th quarter.  What we’ve seen so far this year in maintaining the pace of sales and in the recent surge in home buying activity certainly point to this and also to a good spring market for Bergen County homes.  In fact, I won’t be surprised to learn that the bottom of the real estate market in Bergen County was the end of 2008 and the very beginning of 2009.  2009 will be a year of change.

Simply put, a short sale occurs when a home that is sold is worth less than the mortgage amount and the homeowner cannot make up the difference.  For example, you sell a home for $75,000 but the mortgage is $100,000; you’re short $25,000.  The bank enables the homeowner to sell the house by forgiving the $25,000 difference.  So while the bank doesn’t own the house, the owner can’t sell it without the bank’s cooperation.   Of course, in an actual short sale, the bank would be forgiving the mortgage amount, any other liens and the closing costs. 

If you are interested in pursuing a short sale in Bergen County, please contact an attorney who specializes in real estate before you do anything.  It is always best if you begin by being fully informed.

To get the bank to allow a short sale, a homeowner completes a “workout package” for the bank’s approval including a ”hardship letter” in which the circumstances of the homeowner’s difficulties must be explained along with supporting documentation (pay stubs, account statements, etc).   

Why would a bank do this?  Because the other alternative is a foreclosure which will cost the bank much more in time and money. 

Why would a homeowner do this?  A short sale erases the debt – most of the time the bank forgives everything; infrequently it may insist on a promissory note for part of the loss but that’s still much better than a foreclosure.  In a foreclosure, the debt is still owed so creditors can take your vehicles, garnish your wages, clean out your checking account etc.  This can last for years until the debt is paid off.  A foreclosure ruins your credit for about 10 years – this is a disaster like the Titanic.  You can recover your credit in a few years with a short sale plus the IRS does not consider the forgiven debt as income.

In Bergen County we have 3,703 single family homes for sale according to the New Jersey MLS today; 346 are short sales.  That’s 9.3% of all homes for sale.  Real estate can be negatively impacted by foreclosures; it’s not nice to drive down your street and see a boarded up house with a “Sheriff’s Sale” sign on it so there are many reasons why a short sale is a better idea; it helps the bank, the homeowner and real estate in Bergen County.

The spring market for real estate in Bergen County arrived in February.  We’ve noticed an increase in the number of buyer inquiries and in the number of people coming out on weekends to look at homes on Sunday afternoons which is pretty much what we expect every year.

Below is a quick study of how the market is doing as of February 17th based on New Jersey MLS data.  Over the years, I’ve found that it’s important to see the relationship between the number of homes for sale (A for Active Listings) and under contract (UC).  In a strong seller’s market, this ratio is at 2 to 1.  How long a home is on the market is also important and I’ve put this in the same order for you (A/UC).   I feel that this is a result of over pricing.  It’s pretty tough in any market to get an offer on an over priced home; it just doesn’t make sense to  a buyer.

For a more in depth look at the real estate market go to my market trends report which I’ll be updating monthly at  http://bergencountyhomes.com/market.htm

                                    A/UC                Ratio                Days on the Market

Alpine                          43/1                 43 to 1             257/298

Closter                         74/10               7.4 to 1            136/224

Cresskill                       69:7                 10 to 1             132/128

Dumont                        44/12               3.7 to 1            117/81

Englewood                   123/16             7.7 to 1           155/110

Englewood Cliffs          45/1                 45 to 1             132/221

Harrington Park            18/3                 6 to 1                92/51

Haworth                       35/1                 35 to 1             122/83

Paramus                       114/25             4.5 to 1            146/103

Ridgewood                   98/14               7 to 1                94/105

River Edge                   34/11               3 to 1                73/95

Tenafly                         93/19               5 to 1              118/150