The Bergen County Homes Blog

My projection for Bergen County real estate is right on target - our housing market is improving.  New Jersey MLS data, bank appraisers and housing reports all say the same thing:  We have clearly bottomed out and are in a period of stabilization.

Today’s ratio of homes for sale to under contract is 4 to 1; early in the year it was in double digits.  Last spring Bergen County was classified by the mortgage industry as an “area in decline” meaning that values were falling.  Appraisers were deducting 1% per month of value; if a home appraised at $200,000 and was closing 2 months later, the appraisal was fixed at  $196,000.  Bergen County’s housing market is no longer classified as “in decline” and a Valley National Bank appraiser on Monday told me that price depreciation has ended.

Jeff Otteau in his latest real estate newsletter termed the NJ real estate market’s performance “remarkable” and forecast continued improvement.  The monthly Credit Suisse agent survey said that for the first time in a long time a majority of agents reported positive home buyer traffic and houses selling quicker.

With all time low interest rates, prices no longer dropping and falling inventory levels, there should be no surprise to find stability in the Bergen County real estate market.

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Bergen County homes have done better than most in the US real estate market but like elsewhere, our home values have depreciated over the past few years. For many homeowners this has created a horrible situation where they are facing a short sale or foreclosure.

For those who have seen their mortgage rates reset to a loan they can’t afford, the situation soon deteriorates to a short sale or foreclosure because their loss of equity makes it impossible to get the appraisal needed to refinance to today’s low interest rates. This is why the Federal Government stepped in to help.

On July 1st HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan announced that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will begin refinancing mortgages with loan-to-value ratios as much as 125%. This means you can be 25% negative in the value of your house and still refinance. The idea is to try to match the loss of equity so that homeowners who’ve been paying their mortgages and have good credit can stay in their homes.

While this is just part of the Bergen County housing market, it allows many people to keep their home and helps stabilize real estate values by avoiding foreclosures and short sale transactions.

If this works for you or someone you know, get in touch with a licensed mortgage banker. You need a top level loan officer’s help to qualify for this program; if you need a recommendation, just let me know.

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Great news for home buyers! U.S. Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Secretary Shaun Donovan announced yesterday, May 29th, that the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) will allow home buyers to apply the Obama Administration’s new $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit on FHA mortgage loans. Previously the tax credit only applied to conventional mortgages. The only catch is that the tax credit cannot be used towards the minimum 3.5% down payment. But, this is still terrific and a great help for people who need to use a FHA insured mortgage loan.

Secretary Donavan said that the FHA’s objective in doing this was to help stabilize the housing market by stimulating more home sales across the US and it certainly should do so. With the ability to apply the tax credit to purchase costs, buying a home now becomes affordable for thousands of people and affordable enough to get thousands to jump off the fence and into a house.

FHA loans are extremely popular with first time home buyers because qualifying for a FHA mortgage is a lot easier than qualifying for a conventional loan. The ratios are easier and the down payment can be as little as 3.5% although I must tell you that I do not approve of buying a home with such a low down payment. What I tell my home buyers is to wait until you’ve saved up at least a 10% down payment.

While interest rates went up this week, they also came down on Friday so we’re still in the 5-5.5% range for what most people really qualify for in a mortgage. This has been where it’s at for the past several months throughout the spring.

The reason the first time home buyer market is critical to the housing market is because this is where the housing domino chain begins – when a home buyer buys a house, he buys it from someone who often moves on to a bigger house and so on and so on. The entire chain of transactions begins with the first house that is sold and that’s your first time home buyer.

If you look at the real estate market the picture you see is a pyramid with the least expensive homes on the large bottom (mostly first time home buyers) and the most expensive at the very top. Without those large bottom rows of buyers, the real estate market will collapse. So the FHA, by accepting the $8,000 tax credit on its loans, has helped tremendously to maintain the strength and stability of real estate.

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Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac buy mortgages which means that they guarantee them. Without the backing of Fannie and Freddie, mortgage lenders have to find other investors to sell their mortgage loans to and those investors charge more so interest rates are higher. Fannie and Freddie backed mortgages are called conforming; the others are called jumbo. The limit on a conforming mortgage is $417,000 but that is about to change.

There’s also an intermediate level which is a special allowance for higher cost areas like Bergen County. Such mortage loans are at $417,000 – $625,000 with moderately higher interest rates than conforming loans. This is a super conforming loan but marketing folks have coined the phrases Jumbo and Super Jumbo. You’ll see a Jumbo Mortgage at $417-625,000 and Super Jumbo above $625,000.

OK, now you should have a good basic idea of how things work. Here’s where it gets interesting:

Fannie and Freddie are increasing the conforming mortgage loan limits to $729,750 on May 4th. This came about due to the economic stimulus package which was signed into law on February 17th. Wells Fargo will start taking applications for these loans on Monday, April 27th and I’m sure other banks will begin before May 4th too.

New Jersey MLS data shows that the 2008 average sales price for a single family home in Bergen County was $570,217. Even with a 20% down payment, this put a buyer into jumbo loan territory. In several towns it was often impossible for many buyers to qualify and is part of the reason that upper mid range homes have had such a hard time.

In the upper mid range market, it’s really been tough due to the restrictions on conforming loans. Loosening up lending for these homes creates more buyers for sellers. For real estate in Bergen County this is huge. Bergen County is the 18th most affluent county in the US; many of our towns have been severely impacted by the $417,000 limit and even $625,000 didn’t quite work.

For example, Tenafly had an average sales price last year of $915,581, Old Tappan was $1,147,159 and Woodcliff Lake was $838,309 plus many other Bergen County towns have scores of homes that will benefit. If you are a home buyer who’s looking at $850,000 homes, think of how this will help you! You won’t have to pay a point and your interest rate just dropped.

Think of the impact this will have on real estate in Bergen County and across the United States. Buying a home is never an isolated transaction. Real estate is a chain of events – there are homes sold above and below your own transaction so anything that happens in one price range affects it all. This is going to have quite an impact.

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“How’s real estate and what should I do?” I am receiving so many calls and messages like this that I thought I should post some answers. It seems that real estate is on everyone’s mind lately.

Here’s something to consider: A primary motivating factor for most people is simply because it was the right time. So ask yourself this question – Is this the right time for you?

The right time to move can be due to many reasons such as getting your kids out of the city and into a backyard, you’ve outgrown your home and need more space, you’ve had it with renting and want your own place, you’re ready to move to your dream retirement, everyone’s moved to California and you’re still in Bergen County etc.

If you’re wondering how to manage things based on how the real estate market is doing in Bergen County, here are some answers to help you:

Are you thinking of buying a home? Do it now – we’re at or near the bottom with mortgage rates at historic lows; inflation, with its high interest rates, is projected for the future.

Want to move up to a larger home? Move up now – the cost of upgrading is always the cheapest when you’re around a market’s bottom which is where we are today.

Own a home and not moving? Check your mortgage rate immediately. No matter when you purchased or if you did refinance recently, do this for your own benefit.

Thinking of selling your home? Get your home on the market now – you stand to lose another 5% this year so waiting will hurt you.

Not sure if this is the right time to move? Then don’t. If you’re not sure, its always best to stay put. However, it’s also best to investigate your options fully; I suggest you do this bi-annually.

Let me know if you have any other questions about how to handle the housing market in Bergen County.

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