The Bergen County Homes Blog

Crunching numbers to analyze the real estate market has taught me a lot. Over the years, I’ve found that the relationship between the number of homes for sale and under contract is a great indicator of how the housing market is doing. When that ratio is 2:1, the housing market is strong.

Ok, I know, it’s 2009 and the sky is supposed to be falling but it sure isn’t in Dumont. Right now Dumont has 50 homes for sale and 31 under contract which is way better than 2:1. Plus the time it takes to sell a home has improved dramatically – 72 days for under contract and 93 days for the 25 sales we’ve had over the past 4 months. No matter how you look at it, Dumont homes are rocking! There are several reasons for this.

Dumont is affordable. Property sizes are not too big and not too small which results in a moderate sized house. Dumont typically has what most of us would call a normal sized yard with a normal sized house. This means Dumont real estate works for most of us.

Dumont's school district is very good with a lot of parent participation and a broad range of programs. The town has excellent community services as well. The Borough of Dumont's Official Website is worth a look – it has a lot of information and shows you the strong community spirit that’s here.

The business district is very active with a good mix of retail stores, services and offices. Major retailers have invested in Dumont such as a CVS drug store, Wachovia Bank and Stop N Shop supermarket.

NYC transportation is great – there are plenty of express buses at rush hour and you don’t have to make any changes. Just grab a seat and read the newspaper on the way to work.

Dumont has everything that most people want, is affordable for first time buyers, can handle the more affluent move up market and is a great place to live. No wonder the real estate market is doing well. This does not, however, mean that prices are going up. They aren’t but they’re not sliding down either. If you’re thinking of making a move into Dumont, as a home buyer you’d be smart to do it sooner than later. Things here have turned positive.

When people decide to buy a home they naturally start to look at the real estate market, do some number crunching and find statistics which explain the market trends. Lately, a statistic on homes that’s been quite popular is the absorption rate.

Absorption rates simply put tell you how long it will take to sell off the existing inventory of homes. This shows you how properties are selling; it’s measured in months as in how many months it will take to sell all the homes for sale. Understanding market activity is important but I think that looking at absorption rates this early in the year can be misleading.

No matter the economy, the housing market has a unique rhythm of it’s own. Most homes for sale go on the market during the early part of the year and are sold during the summer so statistics for the first few months of the year that track the relationship between sales and available inventory can be tilted in the wrong direction. In fact, absorption rates at this point can be very confusing if you look at the report appraisers use when they do an appraisal on a house. This is the 1004MC Report.

Let’s look at Tenafly, NJ. If you go back 12 months from today, the Tenafly real estate market for homes really looks weird. For example, take a look at the number of Active Listings – it looks terrible doesn’t it? Well, what would you expect for this time of year? It’s always larger now because more houses are on the market between March and June. At the same time, how long a home is on the market for sale is currently half what it was previously. That is extremely important. In truth, Tenafly houses are selling very well. Tenafly homes are always in strong demand. The New Jersey MLS 1004MC Appraisal Report for Tenafly can be found at tenafly-1004mc-report

There has been a noticeable increase in the number of people looking at homes over the past two weeks.  We’re seeing more buyers coming out on Sundays to our open houses, more calls into our offices and more web responses to our internet postings.   The Bergen County real estate market has been very very busy.

At the same time, the real estate inventory is growing daily as more and more people are putting their homes on the market for sale now that we’re safely past the snow season.  Most homehomes owners do not want to sell their home during the winter weather so having the number of homes for sale grow significantly at winter’s end is quite normal.

The reason for home buyer activity is improved market conditions.  Prices are down substantially from 2004 (by 20 to 25% in most areas), mortgage rates tumbled over the past 2 weeks and one of the most respected analysts of New Jersey real estate,  Jeffrey Otteau, announced last week that New Jersey real estate will depreciate another 9% in 2009 and then stay at that level in 2010 as the real estate market stabilizes.  For many home buyers, this combination of factors made buying a home now a great idea. 

It will be interesting to see if this pick up in activity continues and for how long.  I have a funny feeling that the “smart money” is buying a home now.  Only a lucky person picks the market bottom but I must say that we’ve got to be pretty close to it now.

Simply put, a short sale occurs when a home that is sold is worth less than the mortgage amount and the homeowner cannot make up the difference.  For example, you sell a home for $75,000 but the mortgage is $100,000; you’re short $25,000.  The bank enables the homeowner to sell the house by forgiving the $25,000 difference.  So while the bank doesn’t own the house, the owner can’t sell it without the bank’s cooperation.   Of course, in an actual short sale, the bank would be forgiving the mortgage amount, any other liens and the closing costs. 

If you are interested in pursuing a short sale in Bergen County, please contact an attorney who specializes in real estate before you do anything.  It is always best if you begin by being fully informed.

To get the bank to allow a short sale, a homeowner completes a “workout package” for the bank’s approval including a ”hardship letter” in which the circumstances of the homeowner’s difficulties must be explained along with supporting documentation (pay stubs, account statements, etc).   

Why would a bank do this?  Because the other alternative is a foreclosure which will cost the bank much more in time and money. 

Why would a homeowner do this?  A short sale erases the debt – most of the time the bank forgives everything; infrequently it may insist on a promissory note for part of the loss but that’s still much better than a foreclosure.  In a foreclosure, the debt is still owed so creditors can take your vehicles, garnish your wages, clean out your checking account etc.  This can last for years until the debt is paid off.  A foreclosure ruins your credit for about 10 years – this is a disaster like the Titanic.  You can recover your credit in a few years with a short sale plus the IRS does not consider the forgiven debt as income.

In Bergen County we have 3,703 single family homes for sale according to the New Jersey MLS today; 346 are short sales.  That’s 9.3% of all homes for sale.  Real estate can be negatively impacted by foreclosures; it’s not nice to drive down your street and see a boarded up house with a “Sheriff’s Sale” sign on it so there are many reasons why a short sale is a better idea; it helps the bank, the homeowner and real estate in Bergen County.