Has Tenafly Real Estate Stabilized?
Everyone wants to know and for good reason – real estate is not only your home, it’s a key part of the economy and it’s very local. When real estate is good, people go out more, restaurants are busier, life just seems better. You can feel it when you go downtown or talk to your neighbor. So, how is the Tenafly market?
Tenafly real estate has stabilized almost completely. Over all we are moving forward and have been recovering since late last year.
Today, September 18th, 126 homes are for sale with 18 under contract for a 7 to 1 ratio which isn’t, frankly, great. Things turn positive at 5 to 1 but autumn traditionally has an inventory buildup. The question is whether this is of disastrous proportions and the answer is No.
We are on track to have the same number of sales as last year. Taking it through September 15th for both years, 2009 had 93 sales and 2010 had 94. What about the tax credit? This is the under $500,000 market which was 21% of all Tenafly sales in 2009 and is 20% now (with under contracts).
Average sales prices support positive change too. Significantly higher, this demonstrates that the product mix in Tenafly tilted toward higher priced homes in 2010. Through September 15th the average sales price rose 5% in 2010 to $910,866 from $865,679 last year.
The heart of Tenafly real estate is the $650-950,000 price range. The year to year comparisons clearly show how this market has come back. It picks up again substantially in the important $1-2 million range. The upper tier looks quiet but it isn’t. This is luxury new construction and financing for high end new homes was non-existent until recently. Never doubt Tenafly’s East Hill. Demand was always there even if financing wasn’t. Take a drive up Tenafly’s East Hill. You’ll be amazed at all the high end new construction. The East Hill is most definitely back.
What about the future? Clearly Tenafly real estate has stabilized. The New Jersey MLS inventory of short sales and foreclosures runs at 10-15% so while not terrible, it’s certainly a factor. This together with job uncertainty will keep pricing pretty even for the next year or two. Tenafly may experience some appreciation but at anemic levels. I remain convinced that significant upward movement won’t come before 2013. For Tenafly, the storm is behind us; we’ll be on calm waters till then and that’s good.


